THE huge genetically modified (GM) crop steamroller is showing distinct signs of running out of steam.
While still a big and growing contributor to global grain production output, particularly in categories such as the corn, cotton and oilseed markets in North and South America, growth in GM crop acreages is flattening.
During the past 15 years, global GM seed sales surged from less than $US5 billion a year to more than $20b, thanks largely to typical average increases of 18 per cent and 22pc in the respective three-year periods of 2002-05 and 2007-10.
But between 2011 and 2014, seed sales growth slowed to 10pc, just as the total GM market caught up with conventional seed variety sales.
"All the low hanging fruit in genetically modified technology that's been invented has already been plucked," conceded Michael Mack, chief executive officer of global crop protection and seeds business Syngenta.
He said while new markets may emerge over time, they were "not going to come soon" given the strength of the current tide of public acceptance of GM crops and the current regulatory environment in many parts of the world, notably Europe.
"For those of you who romanticise about the extent of growth in GM (plant) traits, these are the facts you need to look at," he told a recent half-year profit results briefing.
The GM seed sales business was now reaching "saturation point" with between 93pc and 100pc of soybean crops in Argentina, Brazil and the US now planted with GM varieties and 80pc to 93pc of corn varieties grown in those leading field crop producing countries.
More than 95pc of cotton in the US, India and Argentina was also GM, although only 66pc in Brazil.
But while GM canola was grown in the US (94pc of the total crop), it was still not approved in Brazil, Argentina or India, and GM soybeans and corn were also not available in India.
Europe, Japan, Russia and Australia were notable as restricted major markets where GM crop production was limited, with GM cotton and canola only allowed in some Australian states.