Waisake Naholo showed some of his dynamic Super Rugby form in the All Blacks' test against Argentina.
The All Blacks are expected to favour X-factor over safety by picking Waisake Naholo when they name their Rugby World Cup squad on Sunday night.
With Ben Smith, Julian Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder locked in the back three, a case could be made to also include any one of Naholo, Charles Piutau, Israel Dagg or Cory Jane. But in the end Naholo's blockbusting talents and swift healing from what appeared a World Cup-ending injury six weeks ago are thought to have swayed the national selectors for the final spot for the tournament, which kicks off on September 18.
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Taking Naholo seems a gamble but it may also bring considerable reward. He has only played 50 minutes of test rugby, limping off in his test debut against Argentina in Christchurch on July 16 with a fractured leg that was initially expected to sideline him for three months – ending his Rugby World Cup dream. But on the back of alternative treatment in Fiji, he has made an amazing recovery. After medical checks, the All Blacks are thought to be confident he will be fit for their third World Cup pool game against Georgia.
In the All Blacks' opening World Cup match against Argentina, their only realistic threat in pool play, Smith, Milner-Skudder and Savea have earned the right to start. And in the second match, against minnows Namibia, the All Blacks could easily throw Colin Slade on the wing. That should give Naholo ample time to recover. All four outside backs should then be fit and firing for the final pool match against Tonga, and quarterfinal in Cardiff the next week.
The safe option would be to take Jane or Dagg. They were part of the World Cup-winning All Blacks in 2011 and have been central figures over the past four years. But to win World Cups you've got to be willing to make difficult decisions and take some calculated risks. With a 17-forwards/14-backs split likely, there is little wriggle room.
Of those likely miss out, Piutau probably pushed hardest. He was superb in the first three tests of the year but cannot match Naholo's pace and combination with halfback Aaron Smith. Slade and Beauden Barrett are expected to provide fullback cover.
A winger's primary role is to finish, and theymust also be sound under the high ball. Naholo scored more tries in Super Rugby this year than anybody else, bagging 13 to break Jeff Wilson's long-standing record for the Highlanders. His power and lethal speed were key reasons the southern franchise claimed their maiden title.
Compare his record this year with Jane, who touched down three times in 12 games on the end of the Hurricanes' similarly electric backline and you can see why the All Blacks may find it hard to pass over such a gamebreaker.
While the risks associated with taking Naholo stack up, taking two halfbacks does not. There is potential for real embarrassment without genuine back-up and so Tawera Kerr-Barlow will probably sneak in.
With Dan Carter having cemented his spot as first-choice playmaker, the selectors are likely to favour the versatility of Barrett and Slade over Lima Sopoaga in what shapes as yet another tough choice.
In the forward pack, the decision to assemble three locks – in order to take loose forwards Liam Messam and Victor Vito – has been well flagged. Jeremy Thrush remains the fourth-choice lock and may only sneak in if there is a late change of heart.
Horowhenua-raised Crusaders hooker Codie Taylor is a big winner. He's timed his run this year brilliantly, showcasing a similar skillset to Dane Coles to seal the third hooker's position, ahead of Hika Elliot.
Sonny Bill Williams hasn't looked comfortable at times this year but the All Blacks will no doubt back themselves to bring out his best. That means Ryan Crotty may feel the squeeze in the midfield.
Provided he comes through Saturday's hitout for Auckland against Canterbury, Charlie Faumuina's mobility, power and ball-playing talents will also earn him a spot despite spending the best part of three months on the sideline with a neck injury.
Possible All Blacks squad: Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Tony Woodcock, Wyatt Crockett, Dane Coles, Keven Mealamu, Codie Taylor, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Sam Cane, Victor Vito, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam/Jeremy Thrush, Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade, Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Malakai Fekitoa, Sonny Bill-Williams, Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo.
- Sunday Star Times
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