Argentina's president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, hopes to have won a powerful new ally in her campaign to wrest the Falklands from British control with the election of Jorge Mario Bergoglio as pope.
The archbishop of Buenos Aires is on record as saying the islands were "usurped" by Britain, raising the possibility that he could use his position as leader of the world's 1.2 billion Roman Catholics to influence the future of the Falklands.
Pope Francis is known to have a frosty relationship with Fernández but the president has already hinted that she views his election as a boost to get back what Argentinians call Las Malvinas.
Without mentioning the islands by name, Fernández expressed a hope that the pope would "send a message to the great powers so they will engage in dialogue".
Fernández has demanded that Britain begin negotiations over the sovereignty of the islands the two countries went to war over just over 30 years ago – a demand rejected by the British government.
At a memorial mass last year marking 30 years since the Falklands war, the then Cardinal Bergoglio said: "We come to pray for those who have fallen, sons of the homeland who set out to defend their mother, the homeland, to claim the country that is theirs and they were usurped."
The Foreign Office made its position clear on Thursday by issuing a friendly warning on the matter. A spokesman said: "We wish Pope Francis every success in his papal duties. Our position on the Falklands remains, as ever, that the people who live there should be free to determine their own futures."
While it was Pope Alexander VI who divided the New World between Portugal and Spain in the 15th century, there are no recent precedents for a pope becoming involved in a territorial dispute and experts believe it is unlikely he would wish – or have the time – to become embroiled in the matter.
Victor Bulmer-Thomas, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said that Fernández would no doubt try to use Francis's previous statements as propaganda but it was unlikely he would enter the debate. "Of course, Argentina will refer to the fact that he made these statements," said Bulmer-Thomas. "It's nice for them but I can't see it having any impact beyond that."
He added: "I imagine he would avoid it like the plague. As a good Argentinian, it was perfectly natural for him to support the position that most Argentinians take, but he's not representing Argentinians now but all Catholics ... You look at the list of things this poor man has to deal with and the Falklands has got to be way down."
Papal historian Michael Walsh echoed Bulmer-Thomas's comments, saying: "He's very unlikely to say anything that would upset one side rather than the other, although I can't help feeling it might be a long time before he gets an invitation to Britain."
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