* India corn exports could tumble 40 pct in 2013/14 -traders
* Buyers turn to cheaper grain from Argentina, Brazil
* But domestic prices to slide when summer crop hits market
By Naveen Thukral and Meenakshi Sharma
SINGAPORE/MUMBAI, Aug 16 (Reuters) - India's corn exports
could plummet by around 40 percent in the next marketing year,
with buyers turning to cheaper supplies from South America after
a rain-damaged crop pushed up Indian prices and shook confidence
in the grain.
India's winter-planted corn was hit by untimely rains during
harvest across its eastern crop belt in May, prompting key
buyers in Southeast Asia to shift to imports from Argentina and
Brazil, which have been aggressively marketing bumper crops.
The setback to Indian shipments comes as global corn
stockpiles are set to rebound in 2013/14 after three years of
tight supplies. Importers are getting choosy as benchmark U.S.
futures hover around their lowest in three years and
producers rush to sell their crops.
"It's a double-whammy, Indian corn is overpriced and
consumers for the time being have lost confidence in it because
of quality issues," said a Singapore-based trader who sells feed
grain in Asia.
"Where can India sell its corn right now? In my opinion
nowhere."
Corn exports from Asia's top supplier could drop to under 3
million tonnes in the year to October, 2014 from 4.8 million
tonnes in 2012/13, traders said. That is a far steeper decline
than the 27-percent fall in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's
(USDA) latest estimate.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have already covered most of
their demand for the grain until December with cargoes from
Argentina and Brazil. They paid between $260 and $280 a tonne,
including cost and freight (CF), for Argentine corn compared
with Indian cargoes quoted at $310-$315 a tonne.
Feed millers usually take Indian corn only when it has
$10-$15 discount to rival South American cargoes.
And competition is set to heat up with the United States,
the world's top exporter, on track for a record harvest and
Ukraine offering grain as low as $235 a tonne, CF, in Asia for
November and December shipment.
U.S. new-crop December corn slid to a three-year low this
week and has lost almost a quarter of its value in 2013.
REPUTATIONAL DAMAGE
"Export demand is weak because the quality of Indian produce
is not up to the mark," said Neelkanth Thakkar, a trader at
grains exporter Vijaya Enterprises in Mumbai, referring to the
winter-sown crop.
Although any exports from that harvest would be part of the
2012/13 total, fallout in terms of reputational damage will hit
hard in the following crop year, traders said.
India produces two corn crops a year with supplies from the
winter-sown variety hitting the market in April and May, and
harvest for the summer crop starting in mid-September.
Traders in Singapore said there are large volumes of
rain-damaged corn still held up in destination markets as feed
millers have been unable to use the moisture-laden grain.
With dwindling exports and expectations of a record harvest
later in September and October, India will have a corn glut that
is likely to weigh on domestic prices. Some estimated prices
would fall 20 percent from $300 a tonne quoted free on board in
Mumbai.
India is estimated to produce an all-time high crop of 22.5
million tonnes in 2013/14, according to the USDA, up marginally
from 22.2 million tonnes a year ago.
But even with lower prices after October, Indian corn
exports will continue to struggle, traders said. It will not be
able to sell much in its peak marketing months of November and
December as buyers have already covered supplies.
In order to reach total exports of 3 million tonnes in
2013/14 it needs to ship 300,000 tonnes a month, which is
unlikely as the bigger global surplus means more competition.
"There are going to be a whole lot of restrictions imposed
on Indian corn even if it is cheaper," the Singapore trader
said. "Quality issues are going to make it difficult to trade
Indian corn."
Poultry and meat producers, who suffered due to record grain
prices last year, are hoping to benefit as the cost of raising
animals drops.
"The cost of production in poultry could drop by around 5
percent," said Sanjeev Chintawar, business manager at the
National Egg Coordination Committee in the southern city of
Hyderabad.
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford)