* Grains under pressure as dollar rises on U.S. jobs data
* Soy, corn lower after INTL FCStone ups US crop estimates
* Informa corn estimate trims declines in corn futures
* Wheat turns up on global crop concerns
(Adds Informa crop estimates, updates prices, details upturn in
wheat market.)
By Julie Ingwersen
CHICAGO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade corn and
soybean futures fell on Friday on Midwest harvest projections
that suggest both crops may be larger than previously thought,
with further pressure from a U.S. jobs report that reduced
traders' appetites for risk.
Wheat turned higher on global crop concerns including dry
weather in the U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat region that led
to increased worries about poor establishment of the 2013 crop
ahead of the winter dormancy stage of development.
The worst U.S. drought in over 50 years sapped soil moisture
reserves over the summer, and a turn to more dry weather could
have dire consequences for the 2013 U.S. winter wheat crop.
Traders said bullish momentum in wheat was slowed and
pressure remained on other commodities after data showed the
U.S. economy created more jobs than expected last month. The
report lifted the U.S. dollar, which is bearish for U.S.
commodities by making them more expensive on global
markets.
Analysts said the figures indicated the U.S. economy was
improving, which could limit further monetary stimulus measures
by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
"The Federal Reserve is not going to be able to move any
more money into the financial markets, and the quantitative
easing is maybe going to be aborted at this point because the
economy is improving, based on these numbers," said Mike Zuzolo,
president of Global Commodity Analytics in Lafayette, Indiana.
"So you're seeing a lot of profit-taking and liquidation in
the gold, the crude oil, the bond markets, and that is why the
dollar is rallying as well. That is spilling over into the ags,"
Zuzolo said.
At 10:50 a.m. CDT (1550 GMT) Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
December corn was down 9-1/4 cents per bushel, or 1.23
percent, at $7.41-3/4, dropping below its 100-day moving average
at $7.45-1/2. The contract has not settled below the average
since June.
Most-active January soybeans were down 22-3/4 cents,
or 1.46 percent, at $15.36-1/4 a bushel, while December wheat
was up 2 cents, or 0.23 percent, at $8.70-1/2 a bushel.
For the week, CBOT soybeans were on track to fall 1.7
percent, corn was nearly flat and wheat was poised
for a slight decline of 0.3 percent.
U.S. CORN, SOY HARVESTS SEEN LARGER
Soybeans and corn initially came under pressure after
commodity brokerage INTL FCStone late on Thursday
raised its estimate of U.S. 2012 soybean production to 2.959
billion bushels, from 2.849 billion last month.
The firm estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 39.1 bushels
per acre, up from 38.2 previously and above the U.S. Department
of Agriculture's current estimate of 37.8.
The brokerage pegged the U.S. corn harvest at 10.881 billion
bushels, up slightly from its previous estimate of 10.824
billion, and raised its estimate of the corn yield to 124.0
bushels per acre from 123.9 last month.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) current estimate
is for a 10.706 billion bushel corn crop and soybean output at
2.860 billion. USDA will release its next crop report on Friday,
Nov. 9.
"The market is back in this mindset that we are going to
build supply next Friday, when USDA comes out," Zuzolo said.
Some underpinning surfaced in the corn and soybean markets
following the release of crop forecasts by Memphis,
Tennessee-based analytical firm Informa Economics that showed
the data for each crop at a level below some expectations.
WHEAT
Wheat fell in early dealings after a two-day advance as the
dollar rose, making U.S. wheat less competitive on the world
market.
However, the wheat market began climbing because of concerns
that global wheat stocks are tightening, with cuts to Russian
supply while U.S. and Australian wheat conditions have suffered.
Dry weather is an increasing problem in the U.S. Plains hard
red winter wheat region, said Joel Widenor, meteorologist for
Commodity Weather Group.
"A continued lack of rain in most of the Plains winter wheat
belt will leave over a third of the crop likely to enter winter
quite poorly established," he said.
Widenor said these areas will be more vulnerable to any
notable cold air that occurs. "Late emergence issues will also
persist in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota and northeastern
Colorado, and soil erosion over the winter may cause harm to
crop prospects," he said.
The USDA attache in Buenos Aires forecast Argentina's
2012/13 wheat production at 10.8 million tonnes, below the
USDA's last official forecast of 11.5 million, as a result of
excessive spring rains. (Full attache report: r.reuters.com/qaj73t)
Prices at 10:57 a.m. CDT (1557 GMT)
LAST NET PCT YTD
CHG CHG CHG
CBOT corn 743.00 -8.00 -1.1% 14.9%
CBOT soy 1537.25 -21.25 -1.4% 28.3%
CBOT meal 478.00 -6.30 -1.3% 54.5%
CBOT soyoil 49.68 -0.75 -1.5% -4.6%
CBOT wheat 871.25 2.75 0.3% 33.5%
CBOT rice 1469.50 -7.00 -0.5% 0.6%
EU wheat 268.75 1.00 0.4% 32.7%
US crude 85.40 -1.69 -1.9% -13.6%
Dow Jones 13,193 -40 -0.3% 8.0%
Gold 1684.30 -29.79 -1.7% 7.7%
Euro/dollar 1.2843 -0.0099 -0.8% -0.8%
Dollar Index 80.5240 0.4770 0.6% 0.4%
Baltic Freight 986 -14 -1.4% -43.3%
(Additional reporting by Colin Packham in Sydney and Sybille de
La Hamaide in Paris; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Jane Baird,
Dale Hudson and Jim Marshall)
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