Party favorite: Daniel Scioli (R), is benefitting from the support of current Argentine President Cristina Kirchner.
Reuters
The battle to succeed Cristina Kirchner as Argentina’s President is becoming increasingly turbulent, a new poll shows. According to the survey, Buenos Aires Governor Daniel Scioli, the ruling party candidate and a long-time supporter of Kirchner, has sprung into the lead in terms of popularity.
The survey, by Giacobbe Asociados, found the percentage of voters who view Scioli positively rose to 41.4% in July from 33.9% in March. In contrast, the percentage who positively view Scioli’s main rival, Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, fell to 38.3% from 44.5%.
President Kirchner’s supporters have been rallying around Scioli ever since she backed him over other ruling-party contenders, says Jorge Giacobbe, who conducted the poll.
“The war within Kirchnerismo is over. We’re seeing now that Kichneristas are willing to vote for Scioli,” he says. “The other thing is that Scioli is capturing votes among the middle group of people that is neither anti-Kirchner nor pro-Kirchner.”
Scioli may also have been helped by a strong recovery in Kirchner’s own positive rating, which has risen more than 14 points to almost 39% since March. An earlier poll showed Argentines are also increasingly happy with her performance as President, putting her approval rating at almost 43%, up from 31% in September.
Macri had been climbing consistently in the polls earlier this year and in 2014, adding around 30 points to his candidacy, says Giacobbe. His recent decline, though, “should be a big worry for his campaign,” he says.
Still, Giacobbe and other pollsters caution that it is too early to draw conclusions about October.
That’s because many potential Macri voters are currently supporting other opposition candidates, including former Kirchner cabinet chief Sergio Massa, ahead of a non-binding primary election on August 9. Giacobbe’s survey shows that 13.5% of those polled plan to vote for Massa. Many of those people could end up voting for Macri. The big question is, how many?
Once the primary is over, Macri is also expected to gain support from backers of other opposition candidates, making October’s showdown much more competitive. Like other pollsters, Giacobbe says the general election outlook will be much clearer after the August primary.
For now, his survey shows Scioli outpolling Macri by 36.1% to 29.5% in the primary election.
Write to Taos Turner at taos.turner@wsj.com.