What if Brazil failed to qualify for the World Cup? The prospect seems incredible but it is one that football may have to try to come to terms with. It is still a distant possibility but, given how awful the side have been at their last two major tournaments and given how they have started qualifying for Russia 2018, it is not as preposterous a scenario as it would once have seemed. With Argentina also stuttering off the blocks there will be an unexpected sense of anxiety about Thursday’s meeting in El Monumental.
It will still, you suspect, be some time before Brazil comes to terms with its World Cup. A new book by the journalist Jamil Chade, an extract of which can be read in the next issue of The Blizzard, details some of the financial outrages committed under the auspices of the tournament. It is a grim tale of bribery and overspending, of ludicrous follies being built in unsuitable locations that would be hilarious if it were not for the thought of how the hundreds of millions of pounds invested could have been spent in a country in which the gap between rich and poor is atrociously vast.
The most egregious example of overspending is the Estádio Nacional Mané Garrincha in Brasilia, built at a cost of £600m, making it the second most expensive stadium in the world after Wembley. A year on from the World Cup, it serves as government offices and a bus depot. These are the concrete examples of what Fifa’s culture of greed and irresponsibility have led to.
There are, as Chade explains, ongoing police investigations into the allegations of corruption, so at least there may at some point in the future be some sort of reconciliation to the financial legacy of the World Cup. The football legacy, though, remains weirdly unchallenged.
The World Cup was catastrophic for the image of Brazilian football not just because of the way they went out on that apocalyptic night in Belo Horizonte, but for the way they played throughout. They were arrogant, cynical and overly physical, immersed in the cult of Neymar, gripped by an overwhelming sense of entitlement that blinded them to their inadequacies until it was too late.
What was staggering was that the 7-1 defeat by Germany in that semi-final didn’t provoke change. Luiz Felipe Scolari moved on but was replaced as coach by Dunga, another dinosaur. The result was a shambolic Copa América that saw them beaten by Colombia in the group stage before going out on penalties to Paraguay in the quarter-final. Neymar, his spirit apparently crushed by the expectation, lashed out after the Colombia defeat, but returns for the trip to Buenos Aires from the four-game suspension his petulance earned him.
Even that didn’t trigger a revolution against the structures of patronage that keep the CBF so locked in the past. Dunga remains in place. To nobody’s surprise, Brazil lost their opening qualifier 2-0 away to the Copa América champions, Chile – and yet the fact it wasn’t a surprise was itself telling; it was only Chile’s eighth victory over Brazil in 71 meetings. A 3-1 home win over Venezuela at least brought some respite, two goals coming from Willian, who must wonder what he’s done to deserve both his national and club sides collapsing so dismally while he continues to chug diligently up and down.
The major positive for Brazil is the form of Argentina. Brilliant in dispatching Paraguay 6-1 in the Copa América semi-final, they were laboured in losing on penalties to Chile in the final and have not yet recovered, a home defeat by Ecuador and a 0-0 draw in Paraguay leaving Gerardo Martino under serious pressure.
He is without Lionel Messi, Sergio Agüero, Carlos Tevez, Ezequiel Garay and Pablo Zabaleta, all injured. Although there are strong calls for Ángel Correa or Paulo Dybala to start, Martino’s innate conservatism probably means a front three of Ezequiel Lavezzi, Gonzalo Higuaín and Ángel Di María and a grim, attritional game with both sides looking to play on the break, beset by the neurosis of their waning continental status.
Dunga was at his grouchiest this week, complaining that the press hadn’t congratulated him on his 52nd birthday – it is a mark of how awkward he can be that nobody was sure whether he was joking. He is, anyway, engaged in his usual war with the media which, in Rio de Janeiro, has been critical of his treatment of the Botafogo goalkeeper Jefferson, relegated to second choice behind the Internacional 23-year-old Alisson.
More striking to English eyes is the total omission of Philippe Coutinho for Kaká, now 33 and playing for Orlando City in MLS. It is true he was instrumental in Brazil’s victory last time they played a World Cup qualifier away in Argentina, but that was seven years ago.
Perhaps it will work against a vulnerable Argentina, but it is not hard to see that selection as another example of Brazilian football living in the past.