Soaring Prices Fuel Frustrations for Weary Argentines
【By JONATHAN GILBERT／聯合報／陳世欽譯】
BUENOS AIRES — Diego Gómez scurried around the food market in a gritty neighborhood far from the elegant avenues of central Buenos Aires. He did not stay long.
“My salary isn’t enough for anything,” said Mr. Gómez, 58, a blacksmith and father of four who earns less than $800 a month. After a few modest purchases, he left . “It’s unfair that we suffer,” he said about the rise in prices that followed a 19 percent devaluation in January of Argentina’s peso, which sent shock waves through emerging markets.
Mr. Gómez’s situation is common in Argentina as residents grapple with one of the world’s highest inflation rates, leading to social unrest, including a strike by schoolteachers and police sitins that led to widespread looting.
Argentines endured price rises of nearly 30 percent last year, according to an unofficial index published by opposition politicians; the government, which has been accused of manipulating economic data in the past, claims inflation reached only 10.9 percent in 2013. In 2014, inflation could accelerate to 45 percent, according to a recent report by J. P. Morgan in New York.
The price increases are a feature of daily life. One butcher’s store abandoned its price boards last month; cashiers now update a scrap of paper daily. Women seek increases in alimony payments from former spouses. Businesses wrestle with salary demands. News channels send out reporters with 100 pesos, about $12.70, to gauge the weakening buying power of the highest-denomination bill. People fume in the streets about the price of everything from cakes to refrigerators. Cafe owners complain that customers order less food. Wholesalers and store owners struggle to price imported goods.
Salary increases have blunted inflation and fueled domestic consumption, including record sales of new cars last year. But real wages are now expected to drop, leading one prominent opposition figure to compare them to “water running through your fingers.”
The government has pressed ahead with a round of price freezes on items like vegetables, meat, canned food and even some school materials. Billboards encourage Argentines to call a hotline to denounce stores that do not respect the freezes.
“We have to monitor prices,” President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner told thousands of supporters outside Congress this month. “Don’t let them rob you,” she said, referring to what she and her ministers view as a coterie of rapacious businessmen.
In the crowd, Lucía Martínez, 60, a nephrologist, said the price increases were disproportionate and equated them to an “undercover coup.” Posters from a pro-government organization singled out business executives , accusing them of theft.
“They’re toasting with Champagne while the people become divided,” said Sandra Bustos, 50, who runs a market stall.
Argentines disillusioned with the government believe the controls are a symptom of haphazard policy making . “The campaign is useless,” said a retired accountant who gave his name only as José . “It’s a rule that’s older than the world. If you print money, there’s inflation.”
Monetary supply increased by 25 percent in 2013, according to the president of the central bank.
Mrs. Kirchner’s economy minister, Axel Kicillof, subscribed to Marxist theory as a university professor and has downplayed the link between monetary expansion and inflation. He has criticized the idea that Latin American governments should use inflation rates to gauge economic success.
Argentina has long been plagued by cycles of inflation, starting with price increases provoked by influential British merchants soon after Spanish colonialists were ousted in 1810. More recently, the financial crisis of 2001-2 set off political upheaval, devaluation and inflation. A decade earlier, hyperinflation set off looting and forced President Raúl Alfonsín to hand over the presidency . “People have lived through so many inflationary processes that an escalation in prices is not just economic, but sociological,” said Carlos Germano, a political analyst.
“Crises are routine,” said Hugo Fahler, 57, who installs air-conditioning units . He says he now charges nearly twice as much as before the devaluation because the cost of some materials has jumped by 160 percent.
“This reminds me of Alfonsín,” Mr. Fahler said. “The next government is going to have a real mess on its hands.”
中譯
在遠離布宜諾斯艾利斯市中心優雅大道，一個低檔社區的食物市場，戈梅茲很快地逛了一趟。他並未久留。
58歲的戈梅茲是有四個孩子的鐵工，月薪不到800美元。他說：「我的薪水什麼都買不起。」花了點小錢買了些東西後，他離開市集。
阿幣披索一月貶值19%，在新興市場之間引起震撼。他提到繼之而起的物價上漲時說：「只有我們受苦不公平。」
他的處境在阿根廷相當普遍。當地人必須面對舉世最高的通膨率之一，結果引發社會動盪，包括教師罷課與引起嚴重打劫的員警靜坐示威。
根據在野政治人物公布的非官方數據，阿根廷物價去年飆漲將近30%。曾經被控捏造經濟數字的阿根廷政府辯稱，2013年的通膨只有10.9%。紐約摩根大通在最近發表的報告中預測，今年通膨可能飆到45%。
漲價已成家常便飯。一名肉販上個月收起了價格告示牌；出納員現在每天更新零散的鈔票；婦女要求前夫提高贍養費；企業老闆疲於應付員工的加薪要求；電視記者外出採訪時，隨身攜帶100披索面額的鈔票，相當於12.7美元，以估量這最高面額鈔票不斷下跌的購買力；街頭民眾對於從蛋糕到冰箱百物皆漲價火冒三丈；簡餐店說，客人點的食物變少了。批發商與商店老闆努力為進口商品定價。
加薪抵消物價上漲帶來的衝擊，同時帶動國內的消費，包括去年創紀錄的新車銷售。然而實質薪資預期將會下降，某知名在野政治人物將之喻為「從指間穿過的水」。
阿根廷政府已推出一波凍漲行動，項目包括蔬菜、肉類、罐裝食品乃至文具。告示牌鼓勵民眾打熱線電話檢舉不配合凍漲的商家。
阿根廷總統費南德茲女士這個月在國會大廈外向數千名支持者說：「我們必須監控物價。別讓他們搶劫你們。」她指的是她與內閣閣員們所說的一小夥貪婪生意人。
群眾當中的60歲腎臟科醫師露西亞‧馬丁尼茲說，物價漲幅不成比率。她並把這個種現象比喻為「暗中進行的政變」。支持政府的某組織在海報中點名部分企業高階主管，指控他們偷竊。
50歲的市場攤販布斯托斯說：「他們在高舉香檳慶祝，民眾之間則出現了分裂。」
對政府已經不抱指望的阿根廷人認為，控制物價是政府決策過程毫無章法的鐵證。一名只透露名字是荷西的退休會計師說：「控制物價沒有用。這是比這個世界還要古老的法則。如果你加印鈔票，一定會引發通膨。」
阿根廷央行總裁說，去年的貨幣供給增加25%。
阿根廷經濟部長基希洛夫擔任大學教授時，認同馬克斯的理論。他淡化貨幣供給增加與通膨之間的關聯性，同時批評拉美各國政府應以通膨率來評量經濟成就的說法。
長久以來，阿根廷一再出現通膨，首先是西班牙殖民者1810年被逐出後，有影響力的英國商人很快引起的物價上漲。2001/02年的金融危機引起政治動盪、貨幣貶值與通膨。在此10年前，超高通膨引發搶劫潮，最後迫使艾方辛總統下台。政治分析家哲馬諾說：「人們經歷過那麼多次通膨。因此，物價上漲不只是經濟問題，也是社會問題。」
57歲的法赫勒專門為人安裝空調設備。他說：「危機已經是常態。」他說，他現在收取的費用約是披索貶值前的兩倍，因為部分材料漲了160%。
他說：「這使我想起艾方辛。下一任政府勢必接下一個爛攤子。」
【2014-04-01/聯合報】